The US Seizure of Maduro: How Trump Has Transformed the World's Superpower into a Rogue State
Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.
Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.
Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers
It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.
It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.